Yesterday, a presentation by Dr. Rob Stadler took place on Dr. James Tour’s Youtube channel which has brought to light a compelling debate about the true extent of evolutionary capabilities. In their conversation, they delve into the levels of confidence in evolutionary evidence, revealing a stark contrast between observable, high-confidence microevolution and the extrapolated, low-confidence claims of macroevolutionary transitions. This distinction, which is based on the levels of evidence as understood in medical science, raises profound questions about the sufficiency of evolutionary mechanisms to explain the vast diversity of life.

Dr. Stadler, author of “The Scientific Approach to Evolution,” presents a rigorous framework for evaluating scientific evidence. He outlines six criteria for high-confidence results: repeatability, direct measurability, prospectiveness, unbiasedness, assumption-free methodology, and reasonable claims. Applying these criteria to common evolutionary arguments, such as the fossil record, geographic distribution, vestigial organs, and comparative anatomy, Dr. Stadler reveals significant shortcomings. These lines of evidence, he argues, fall short of the high-confidence threshold. They are not repeatable, they cannot be directly measured, there is very little (if any) of predictive value , and most importantly they rely heavily on biased interpretation and assumption.

However, the interview also highlights examples of high-confidence evolutionary studies. Experiments with E. coli bacteria, for instance, demonstrate the power of natural selection and mutation to drive small-scale changes within a population. These studies, repeatable and directly measurable, provide compelling evidence for microevolution. Yet, as Dr. Stadler emphasizes, extrapolating these observed changes to explain the origin of complex biological systems or the vast diversity of life is a leap of faith, not a scientific conclusion.

The genetic differences between humans and chimpanzees further illustrate this point. While popular science often cites a 98% similarity, Dr. Stadler points out the significant differences, particularly in “orphan genes” and the regulatory functions of non-protein-coding DNA. These differences, he argues, challenge the notion of a simple, linear evolutionary progression.

This aligns with the research of Dr. Douglas Axe, whose early work explored the probability of protein evolution. Axe’s findings suggest that the vast divergence between protein structures makes a common ancestor for all proteins highly improbable (Axe, 2000). This raises critical questions about the likelihood of orphan genes arising through random evolutionary processes alone, given the complexity and specificity of protein function.

The core argument, as presented by Dr. Tour and Dr. Stadler, is not that evolution is entirely false. Rather, they contend that the high-confidence evidence supports only limited, small-scale changes, or microevolution. The leap to macroevolution, the idea that these small changes can accumulate to produce entirely new biological forms, appears to be a category error, based on our best evidence, and remains a low-confidence extrapolation.

The video effectively presents case studies of evolution, demonstrating the observed limitations of evolutionary change. This evidence strongly suggests that evolutionary mechanisms are insufficient to account for the levels of diversity we observe today. The complexity of biological systems, the vast genetic differences between species, and the improbability of protein evolution challenge the core tenets of Neo-Darwinism and the Modern Synthesis.

As Dr. Tour and Dr. Stadler articulate, a clear distinction must be made between observable, repeatable microevolution and the extrapolated, assumption-laden claims of macroevolution. While the former is supported by high-confidence evidence, the latter remains a subject of intense debate, demanding further scientific scrutiny.

Works Cited

• Tour, James, and Rob Stadler. “Evolution vs. Evidence: Are We Really 98% Chimp?” YouTube, uploaded by James Tour, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smTbYKJcnj8&t=2117s.
• Axe, Douglas D. “Extreme functional sensitivity to conservative amino acid changes on enzyme exteriors.” Journal of Molecular Biology, vol. 301, no. 3, 2000, pp. 585-595.